SearchBudget Day 2025 Confirmed: What’s Behind the Delay?
After weeks of speculation, the government has now officially confirmed that the Autumn Budget will take place on Wednesday, 26th November 2025.
This announcement follows growing uncertainty around the timing, particularly after Downing Street revealed it had not yet given the required 10 weeks’ notice to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)—a procedural step necessary for the OBR to produce its independent economic forecast.
But what else might be behind the delay?
A Closer Look at the Reasons Budget Day 2025 has been delayed
While the OBR notice is a key factor, there are several other likely contributors:
1. Economic Headwinds
The UK is facing a challenging fiscal landscape, with reports suggesting a potential £50 billion shortfall. The Chancellor may need additional time to shape a Budget that balances fiscal responsibility with political commitments. See our summary below:
| Category | Headwind | Explanation / Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation & Prices | Persistent inflation above target | Even though inflation has fallen from peaks, it remains sticky in areas like food and services, keeping household budgets under pressure. |
| High energy costs | Wholesale prices have eased but remain volatile, feeding through to business costs and consumer bills. | |
| Interest Rates | Prolonged high Bank of England base rate | Rates are kept high to combat inflation, increasing borrowing costs for households (mortgages, loans) and businesses. |
| Public Finances | High government debt and borrowing | Fiscal constraints limit ability to increase public spending or cut taxes, tightening economic flexibility. |
| Growth & Investment | Weak productivity growth | Long-term stagnation in productivity limits wage growth and competitiveness. |
| Low business investment | Uncertainty around regulation, tax, and trade dampens private sector investment. | |
| Labour Market | Skills shortages | Gaps in key sectors (e.g. health, construction, digital) hinder growth and drive up wages. |
| Low workforce participation | Rising inactivity due to health issues and early retirements shrinks available labour supply. | |
| Trade & Global Factors | Post-Brexit trade frictions | New barriers and reduced EU trade affect exporters and supply chains. |
| Global economic slowdown | Weak demand from trading partners, especially the Eurozone and China, impacts UK exports. | |
| Geopolitical risks | Conflicts (Ukraine, Middle East) create uncertainty, disrupt supply chains, and keep commodity prices volatile. | |
| Housing Market | Housing affordability crisis | High mortgage costs and limited housing supply reduce consumer confidence and spending. |
| Structural Challenges | Regional inequality | Disparities between London/South East and the rest of the UK constrain balanced growth. |
| Net zero transition costs | Investment needed for decarbonisation creates near-term costs for businesses and households. |
2. Political Strategy
Tax rises are widely expected, but the government remains keen to avoid breaking its manifesto pledges not to raise VAT, income tax, or employee National Insurance. Delaying the Budget allows time to refine messaging and explore alternative revenue-raising measures—such as reforms to pension tax relief, capital gains, and property taxation.
3. Internal Reshuffling
Recent changes at No.10, including the appointment of Darren Jones as Chief Secretary and Baroness Shafik as Chief Economic Adviser, suggest a more centralised approach to economic policy. This may require additional coordination time across departments.
4. Market Sensitivity
With bond yields rising and investor confidence under pressure, the timing of the Budget could be strategic—aimed at reassuring markets with a credible fiscal plan.
From Halloween Horror to Festive Forecast?
We were bracing ourselves for a Halloween horror of a Budget — but now it looks like it might land closer to Christmas. Will it bring festive cheer? We wouldn’t bet on it.
At HURST, we’ll be keeping a close eye on developments and will be ready to help our clients navigate whatever measures are announced—whether you're a business owner, investor, or individual looking to plan ahead.
Contact us ahead of Budget 2025
If you’d like to discuss how the upcoming Budget might affect you, get in touch with our team. imagine@hurst.co.uk